Obama Senator | Obama President 2008

Republican Prospects for Retaking Senate are Strong for 2012

The 2012 political outlook for US Senate races looks favorable for a Republican takeover. For starters, the GOP needs only to defend 10 seats, whereas the Democrats have 22 seats to defend (counting the seats held by Independent Senators Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders who caucus with the Democrats). With the Democrats holding a fairly slim 53-47 majority in the Senate, if Republicans were to win just 13 or 14 of the 32 races at stake, they would regain control of the US Senate. In the event of a 50-50 tie, the party that wins the Presidential election of 2012 would be in control with the Vice President in the position to cast tie-breaking votes.

With the Republicans needing just 3 or 4 Democratic held seats to seize control of the Senate, their odds look very strong. If the political environment in 2012 is anywhere close to the anti-Obama wave election of 2010, the GOP could not only regain senate control, but they could possibly gain in the neighborhood of a dozen seats and approach a filibuster-proof majority. With the election just over a year away, an early look at Republican prospects reveals a Democratic majority in the Senate that is very fragile indeed. A race-by-race analysis shows many more vulnerable Democratic held seats than Republican held seats. While much can change in one year's time, here is a current analysis of where the races stand with just over a year until election day, ranked in order of likelihood of Republican takeover.

Low Hanging Fruit: North Dakota and Nebraska

The Republicans have a distinct advantage in two Democratic controlled races. Gaining these two seats would require them only to pick up one or two additional seats from all the other races to wrestle control of the Senate.